An awful lot of digital ink has been spilled on Patrick Roys 2013-14 Colorado Avalanche this summer, a team that more or less defied woeful play at five-on-five by riding unsustainable shooting and save percentages. Randy Jones Jersey . Largely because we have seen a model of this team before, many analysts are expecting some form of regression a€“ the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild and 2012-13 Toronto Maple Leafs have provided ample case studies in the importance of getting the right side of possession. Perhaps more accurately, they have provided lessons on why teams must not rely on volatile percentages to rack up wins. What makes this Colorado team interesting is two-fold. Firstly, theyre teeming with young and developing talent, which could help stave off that regression to a degree. Secondly, we have only seen one year of real success from this club. The season before, Colorado played to a 67-point pace and finished dead last in the Western Conference. Since we have data on teams dating back to 2007, its not particularly difficult to investigate relationships between sets of data. Correlations of subsequent seasons can tell us what kind of adjustments to make, if any, when trying to forecast future output. What I went ahead and did prior to this post was pull out Year 1 vs. Year 2 data for a variety of team-level even-strength numbers from 2007 to 2012 and dropped them in the table below. Repeatability is an r-squared number that tells us the percent of variance explained - the higher the r-squared number (up to 1.0), the more repeatable of a skill it is: Repeatability EV Shooting Percentage 0.00 EV Save Percentage 0.13 EV Goal For% 0.19 EV Fenwick% 0.33 EV Corsi% 0.38 EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick% (SAF%) 0.39 You are reading the above correctly. A teams even-strength shooting percentage over one year tells us absolutely nothing about how that team will shoot the following year. Save percentage is slightly more telling than shooting percentage, but ultimately, its a number youre going to want to heavily regress. As you go down the list, the correlations in data run tighter and the numbers dont need to be regressed as heavily. None of this bodes well for Colorado, a team that rode high percentages and carried terrible territorial control. One other note on the above - youll see that the r-squared between EV GoalFor% in the first year and EV GoalFor% in the subsequent year is 0.19. While EV GoalFor% is a better predictor of future EV GoalFor% than both EV Fenwick% and EV Corsi%, it is not a better predictor than EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick%. That said, lets look at some comparables for the Colorado Avalanche - teams that picked up 90 or more points (my random cut-off line separating average teams from good ones) who also carried sub-par possession numbers at even-strength. Well use equations generated for the year-one to year-two correlations to create an estimated number, and then compare it against the teams actual number. First, lets do the percentages at even-strength: Y1 EVSH% Est. Y2 EVSH% Actual Y2 EVSH% 2007 Pittsburgh 8.96% 7.89% 9.76% 2007 Montreal 8.73% 7.88% 8.23% 2007 Minnesota 8.39% 7.88% 7.50% 2008 Florida 8.35% 7.88% 7.71% 2008 Montreal 8.23% 7.88% 7.58% 2009 Colorado 8.84% 7.89% 7.93% 2010 Carolina 8.05% 7.88% 7.26% 2010 Dallas 8.72% 7.89% 7.62% 2010 Anaheim 7.79% 7.87% 7.99% 2013 Colorado 8.77% 7.89% ? AVERAGE 8.48% 7.88% 7.95% Its almost stunning how identical the expected year two and actual year two percentages are on both ends of the rink. The takeaway from this is simple: one year of shooting percentage data tells us absolutely nothing, and regressing it all the way to the league average will give us a much better forecast of whats to come. Y1 EVSV% Est. Y2 EVSV% Actual Y2EVSV% 2007 Pittsburgh 93.29% 92.55% 92.40% 2007 Montreal 92.53% 92.28% 92.27% 2007 Minnesota 92.25% 92.18% 92.70% 2008 Florida 93.27% 92.54% 93.13% 2008 Montreal 92.27% 92.19% 92.90% 2009 Colorado 92.62% 92.31% 91.35% 2010 Carolina 92.45% 92.25% 92.34% 2010 Dallas 92.49% 92.27% 92.05% 2010 Anaheim 92.32% 92.21% 91.66% 2013 Colorado 93.07% 92.47% ? AVERAGE 92.66% 92.33% 92.31% The same can be said for save percentage data - taking our year one data and pulling it back 87 per cent to the league average gives us a more accurate guess as to whats to come. Using that regression for forecasting purposes, expect Colorado to shoot around 7.89 per cent for next year at evens and stop around 92.47 per cent of the shots. Now, lets break away from shooting and save percentages and look at possession rates. We know Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is the most repeatable of these metrics. Lets repeat the above exercise with the same Colorado comparables, and try to pindown where Colorado will finish at evens this season. Ive included a fourth column in here to identify the change in points from Year 1 to Year 2. Y1 SAF% Est. Y2 SAF% Actual Y2 SAF% Points Change 2007 Pittsburgh 46.70% 48.05% 49.21% -3 2007 Montreal 47.22% 48.36% 47.56% -11 2007 Minnesota 47.77% 48.68% 47.39% -9 2008 Florida 46.18% 47.75% 45.66% -16 2008 Montreal 47.60% 48.58% 46.78% -5 2009 Colorado 46.33% 47.83% 46.38% -27 2010 Carolina 47.18% 48.34% 47.18% -9 2010 Dallas 47.60% 48.58% 47.60% -6 2010 Anaheim 45.46% 47.32% 45.46% -20 2013 Colorado 47.18% 48.34% ? ? AVERAGE 46.92% 48.18% 47.02% -11.78 You should first notice that regression seems less important with our possession numbers than the shooting/save percentages above. Thata€?s because possession is a repeatable skill - or in this case, the lack of possession is a repeatable skill. Every team that can be considered a comparable for Colorado 2013-14 was out-shot in Year 1 and Year 2 - in most cases, decisively. And, ita€?s impossible to ignore that column on the right, where every single percentage-good, possession-bad team of recent history saw a fall in the standings. The average fall for those nine teams was in the double digits, and the one team that didna€?t take a massive hit - 2007 Pittsburgh - improved their possession numbers by almost three full percentage points. Not only are those percentages running against the Avs, but they also go into next season missing their two best possession forwards from last season, with Paul Stastny signing in St. Louis and P.A. Parenteau traded to Montreal. Further, its difficult to project improved possession numbers when the Avalanche brain trust doesnt seem inclined to dig into possession-based analytics. This does not bode well for Patrick Roya€?s team. Ita€?s a virtual lock that their shooting and save percentages will climb down from their heights of last year, which means that their Goal% - last year, it was at 53.6 per cent - is in real trouble. The million dollar question is how far the Avs will fall - knocking them down by the average (-11.78) would likely still see them finish in the post-season, but their margin for error will be extremely tight this year. Jose Pirela Jersey .com) - Marian Gaborik scored his sixth goal in the last four games to help the Los Angeles Kings top the Arizona Coyotes, 4-2, Saturday at Staples Center. Wil Myers Jersey . The day began ominously for the Rangers when star pitcher Yu Darvish was scratched from his scheduled start with stiffness in his neck. Fill-in Scott Baker gave up three hits over six innings and Chris Gimenez hit a tiebreaking two-out RBI single in the sixth off Phil Hughes. http://www.padresrookiestore.com/Padres-Manuel-Margot-Kids-Jersey/ . Coaches are now allowed to challenge both called and potential defensive pass interference fouls under certain conditions. ORLANDO, Fla. -- In a season-long search for success, the Orlando Magic found a few things to celebrate in their victory over the short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves. Arron Afflalo broke out of a six-game shooting slump and Kyle OQuinn rebounded from a dreadful game the night before to help the Magic rally from a 13-point second-half deficit and defeat the Timberwolves 100-92 Saturday night. Afflalo, who hadnt scored in double figures his last three games and was 14 of 47 (29 per cent) from the field in his last five, hit 8 of 15 from the field and scored 18 points against Minnesota, which played without injured starters Kevin Love, Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic and lost replacement starter Chase Budinger in the first minute of the game with an ankle injury. OQuinn, who was just 5 of 20 and got exploited by Al Jefferson in a loss to Charlotte Friday night, came back with 14 points and 13 rebounds against the Timberwolves. Tobias Harris and Maurice Harkless added 17 points apiece for the Magic. Rookie Victor Oladipo contributed 16 points and six assists, plus good defence in the fourth quarter against Timberwolves playmaker Ricky Rubio to help Orlando end a three-game losing streak. Orlando shot 60.5 per cent in the second half and pounded the Timberwolves on the boards, 40-30. "There were a lot of good story lines from this game," Magic coach Jacque Vaughn said. "We got a lot of contributions all across the board. We had 29 assists, hit the open guy and trusted the consequences of whatever came from it." OQuinns performance was important because the Magic had their own injury problem with starting centre Nikola Vucevic missing a second straight game with a sore Achilles tendon. His replacement, Dewayne Dedmon, scored on his first shot of the game, but didnt make another shot and played only 14 minutes. That put the onus on OQuinn to control the inside and he responded with one of the best games of his career. "Last night was a rough night for me," OQuinn said. "There were points where I could have made a shot and turned things around, but we lost so I had to bounce back. You have to have a short memory, but we stuck together and got the result we wanted." Minnesota got 18 points and 10 assists from Rubio,, but he couldnt find many familiar faces in the lineup with him when the game went down to the final four minutes with the Timberwolves trying to hold on to an 89-88 lead. Eric Hosmer Jersey. Reserves were filling the roles usually played by Love, Martin and Pekovic. The result was an 0-for-6 stretch that allowed Orlando to go on a 10-1 run and put the game away. "Were playing combinations that havent played before and you get to the fourth quarter and things really start affecting you," Minnesota coach Rick Adelman said. "Guys played hard, but we just couldnt finish it." Dante Cunningham, who missed one game after being arrested for domestic assault, rejoined the Timberwolves and scored 12 points. "When you play with guys like Kevin Love or Kevin Martin, you know where they like to play," Rubio said. "When youre playing with new guys, you have to figure it out. We just ran out of energy. We have to fight through it." The Magic rallied from 12 points down with five minutes to go in the third quarter. The combination of sloppy ball handling by the Magic and Rubio having his way against a porous Magic defence allowed the Timberwolves to push a 48-46 halftime lead up to 13 points in the third quarter. When Rubio went to the bench, Minnesotas offensive rhythm went with him. Oladipo and Harris took advantage, helping the Magic close the gap to 77-72 by the end of the third quarter and open the final period with an 8-2 run. A steal and jam by Harris gave Orlando an 80-79 advantage with 8:38 left. Minnesota reclaimed the lead with another drive through the lane by Rubio giving the Timberwolves an 89-88 lead with 4:26 left in the game. Oladipo drilled another 3 to start Orlando on the clinching 10-1 run. NOTES: Timberwolves starters F Kevin Love (back spasms), C Nikola Pekovic (ankle) and SG Kevin Martin (foot) sat out as did backup F Shabazz Muhammad (knee). . Magic C Nikola Vucevic (sore Achilles) missed his 20th game this season because of injury. Dewayne Dedmon got the first start of his career as Vucevics replacement. . Minnesota is 17-13 against the East this season. . Orlando improved to 6-28 in back-to-back games this season. Five of the six wins came in the second game. . Minnesota has lost six straight at Orlando. ' ' '